Kai Thaler
Connect with Kai
About Kai
Thaler's research examines conflict and political violence, security policy, protest movements, and democracy and authoritarianism, especially in Africa and Latin America. He focuses particularly how the ideologies and goals of rebel groups, social movements, and governments interact with national histories and the international environment to affect violence, state building, mobilization, and political freedoms. Thaler has written widely for academic and public audiences and has worked as a research consultant for Freedom House and Humanity & Inclusion. He also serves as a country expert on Nicaragua for asylum cases.
Contributions
Afghan Insurgents Are a Dead End
In the News
Publications
Develops a spectrum across which armed group–state relationships can move, focusing on three key types of relationships—delegation, sponsorship, and autonomy. Examines cases and empirical examples of relationships between states and armed groups ranging from criminal organizations to Cold War-era rebels to pro-government and communal militias to the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and al-Qaeda.
Questions how did a protest movement rapidly arise in 2018 to challenge Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, then Latin America's most popular leader? Shows how the government's use of violent repression against initial protests made Nicaraguans draw parallels to their nation's history of dictatorship and revolution, turning public opinion against the regime
Discusses Military Integration and Intelligence Capacity: Informational Effects of Incorporating Former Rebels." Militaries facing insurgencies often struggle with a lack of information and limited relationships with local populations. Mentions integrating former rebels into government security forces can help overcome these issues and enable more effective counterinsurgency and peacebuilding.
Asks what was the role of the United States in mass atrocities during Indonesia's turn to right-wing authoritarianism in the 1960s? Shows how US officials aided and abetted mass violence and a military takeover in Indonesia.
Elaborates on the 2016 elections in Nicaragua marking the country's full transition to authoritarianism, with President Daniel Ortega delegitimizing opposition parties and installing First Lady Rosario Murillo as Vice President. Traces the erosion of democracy in Nicaragua from Ortega's return to the presidency in 2007.