“In 2014 to 2024, internal ICE arrests never broke 100,000. Now we come to Trump. That is no longer true. According to reporting, ICE just for this year since Trump took office hit 150,000 arrests, as of early August and is on track potentially to break records for the highest number of internal ICE arrests ever in history. So how has this happened? What have they been doing? First, policies have explicitly changed. Executive orders that President Trump signed on day one direct ICE to prioritize arresting and detaining all undocumented immigrants regardless of their criminal histories or pasts. We have also seen a dramatic increase in who is carrying out arrests. We have seen an estimated 6,700 federal agents brought in from other parts of the federal government to carry out immigration enforcement. That includes nearly 4,000 people from the Department of Justice, including the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms, the ATF, the FBI, the DEA, the Drug Enforcement Agency, as well as the US. Marshall Services. We've even seen the IRS and the US Postal Inspection Service, and even the State Department's Diplomatic Security Service, which normally protects diplomats, all being taken away from their normal jobs and sent down on the streets to act as ICE’s arms.”
“More than a third of the people that ICE sent to detention from an arrest in the Interior had no criminal record whatsoever. When Trump took office, 4% of people sent to detention from the Interior by ICE had no criminal record. As of the most recent data through August 12th, it's 34%. So we've gone from 4% to 34%, and as of today, there are more people in ICE detention who have no criminal record than people who are pending criminal charges.”
“As scholars, this does open many opportunities to analyze an enforcement operation and blitz that really don't look like anything that's happened in the modern era. Unfortunately, the data is not easily available, but [through] some projects, some people have made some data available, [such as] the Deportation Data Project. This is a really phenomenal resource that David Hausman and others put together, that allows people to look at the individual data on ICE arrests and detentions and really be able to analyze [that], see the trends, what is happening here. This is phenomenal data and has been put into the public. I have talked to multiple reporters who are producing features on the basis of this. So this is a really useful tool that I suggest people who want to do data analysis look into, going forward.”
“The Trump administration isn't just going after the enforcement of the people who are in the country. They are also aiming to restrict who gets to come here.
The actual numbers of people coming to the country may not drop, despite the fact that tens of thousands of people are going to be denied visas. Because for every fifty people or one hundred people or one thousand people that are denied a visa under these new restrictions, there are more than that waiting in the backlogs who can take their place. And that means that actual numbers of immigration may not drop, but the composition of who gets to immigrate will drop. And that data is available to some extent through the State Department, but there is a lot of lag time. So we will not be quickly seeing changes in the data, but I do encourage projects going forward looking at how the composition of immigrants to the United States changes.”
“With all the new restrictions the Trump administration is putting in place–visa bans, ideological screenings, and a few other bits of red tape– it's going to be very hard to disentangle that from the general lack of desire of people to come to the country as they feel no longer welcome. So we may see both a change in the composition of the immigrant flow because of its specific policies and a change because of the desirability of immigration of the United States. This is a research opportunity like none other [for scholars]. We are seeing this play out, but of course, it is real people's lives being affected and the need for this data and the need for the analysis is higher than it has really ever been as we are in this moment of major change in transition.”