Kai M. Thaler

Assistant Professor of Global Studies, University of California-Santa Barbara

Areas of Expertise:

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@kaimthaler.bsky.social

About Kai

Thaler's research examines conflict and political violence, security policy, protest movements, and democracy and authoritarianism, especially in Africa and Latin America. He is the author of When Rebels Win: Ideology, Statebuilding, and Power after Civil Wars (Cornell University Press, 2025) and has written widely for academic and public audiences. Thaler has worked as a research consultant for Freedom House, Humanity & Inclusion, and Social Impact, and serves as a country expert on Nicaragua for asylum cases.

Contributions | No Jargon Podcast | Member Spotlight | In the News | Publications

Contributions

Afghan Insurgents Are a Dead End

Commentary, December 2021

In the News

Opinion: "Mozambique’s Islamist Insurgents Are on the Run. Integrating Former Rebel Fighters Could Help Usher In Peace," Kai M. Thaler, Monkey Cage Analysis, The Washington Post, August 27, 2021.

Opinion: "To Replace Autocrats of Nicaragua, Think Beyond This Fall’s Election," Kai M. Thaler (with Ryan C. Berg), Opinion, The Los Angeles Times, August 24, 2021.

Opinion: "Ortega and Murillo’s Two-Level Game," Kai M. Thaler, Latino America 21, June 28, 2021.

Opinion: "Violence Is Sometimes the Answer," Kai M. Thaler, Argument, FP Insider, December 5, 2019.

Opinion: "Aid And Diplomacy, Not Tear Gas: How To Address The Central American Migrant Crisis," Kai M. Thaler, The Duck Of MIinerva, November 27, 2018.

Opinion: "50 Years Ago Today, American Diplomats Endorsed Mass Killings in Indonesia. Here’s What That Means for Today," Kai M. Thaler, Monkey Cage, The Washington Post, December 2, 2015.

Publications

"Delegation, Sponsorship, and Autonomy: An Integrated Framework for Understanding Armed Group–State Relationships" Journal of Global Security Studies 7, no. 1 (2022).

Develops a spectrum across which armed group–state relationships can move, focusing on three key types of relationships—delegation, sponsorship, and autonomy. Examines cases and empirical examples of relationships between states and armed groups ranging from criminal organizations to Cold War-era rebels to pro-government and communal militias to the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and al-Qaeda.

"Civil Resistance in the Shadow of the Revolution: Historical Framing in Nicaragua’s Sudden Uprising" (with Eric Mosinger, Diana Paz García, and Charlotte Fowler). Comparative Politics 54, no. 2 (2021).

Questions how did a protest movement rapidly arise in 2018 to challenge Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, then Latin America's most popular leader? Shows how the government's use of violent repression against initial protests made Nicaraguans draw parallels to their nation's history of dictatorship and revolution, turning public opinion against the regime

"Military Integration and Intelligence Capacity: Informational Effects of Incorporating Former Rebels" Political Research Exchange 3, no. 1 (2021).

Discusses Military Integration and Intelligence Capacity: Informational Effects of Incorporating Former Rebels." Militaries facing insurgencies often struggle with a lack of information and limited relationships with local populations. Mentions integrating former rebels into government security forces can help overcome these issues and enable more effective counterinsurgency and peacebuilding.

"U.S. Action and Inaction in the Massacre of Communists and Alleged Communists in Indonesia (1965-1966)" in Dirty Hands and Vicious Deeds: The US Government’s Complicity in Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide, (University of Toronto Press, 2018), 23 and 49.

Asks what was the role of the United States in mass atrocities during Indonesia's turn to right-wing authoritarianism in the 1960s? Shows how US officials aided and abetted mass violence and a military takeover in Indonesia.

"Nicaragua: A Return to Caudillismo" Journal of Democracy 28, no. 2 (2017): 157-169.

Elaborates on the 2016 elections in Nicaragua marking the country's full transition to authoritarianism, with President Daniel Ortega delegitimizing opposition parties and installing First Lady Rosario Murillo as Vice President. Traces the erosion of democracy in Nicaragua from Ortega's return to the presidency in 2007.