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Karen Benjamin Guzzo

Professor of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Chapter Member: North Carolina SSN
Areas of Expertise:

About Karen

Guzzo is a family demographer and sociologist, and she serves as Director of the Carolina Population Center and is a Professor of Sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her area of specialization is childbearing goals, behaviors, and trends in the U.S. Dr. Guzzo’s research has been funded by the NIH and NSF. She has served on the boards of the Population Association of America, the National Council of Family Relations, and several demographic and family academic journals.

In the News

Quoted by Sabrina Tavernise, Jeff Adelson in "U.S. Birthrate Declines to An All-Time Low, But There's a Story of Success," The New York Times, February 27, 2026.
Quoted by Jasmine in "White House Issues Warning Over US Fertility Rate," , October 17, 2025.
Opinion: "Fears That Falling Birth Rates in US Could Lead to Population Collapse are Based on Faulty Assumptions," Karen Benjamin Guzzo (with Leslie Root and Shelley Clark), The Conversation, July 25, 2025.
Guest on WBUR: On Point, June 26, 2025.
Quoted by Ephrat Livni in "The Real Fertility Crisis? Financial Security, a U.N. Report Says," The New York Times, June 11, 2025.
Guest on NPR: Fresh Air, April 30, 2025.
Quoted by Janet Adamy in "Why Americans are Having Fewer Babies," The Wall Street Journal, May 26, 2023.
Opinion: "US Birth Rates are at Record Lows – Even Though the Number of Kids Most Americans Say They Want Has Held Steady," Karen Benjamin Guzzo (with Sarah Hayford), The Conversation, January 12, 2023.

Publications

"Subjective Well-Being and Fertility Uncertainty During the Pandemic" (with Gabrielle Juteau, Wendy D. Manning, and Claire M. Kamp Dush ) in Advances in Social Demography: The Latest on Fertility, Family, Demographic Change, and Population Growth, edited by Robert Schoen, (Springer, 2025), 297-322.

Investigates how subjective perceptions influence short-term fertility intentions in the U.S. Finds that while most adults don’t plan to have a child soon, life satisfaction increases the likelihood of intending to, and economic stress raises uncertainty.

"Perceptions of the Future and Pregnancy Avoidance in the U.S" (with Anna Belykh, Wendy Manning, Monica Longmore, Peggy Giordano, and Sara Roza). Population Research and Policy Review 44, no. 36 (2025).

Examines why U.S. birth rates remain low despite widespread cultural norms favoring two-child families. Finds that many adults delay pregnancy due to economic pessimism and relationship concerns, suggesting short-term avoidance—not a rejection of parenthood—may be driving lower fertility.

"Multiple Dimensions of Uncertainty in Fertility Goals: Recent Trends and Patterns in the United States" (with Luca Badolato and Sarah R. Hayford). Genus 81, no. 14 (2025).

Explores how different types of uncertainty—about having children, achieving fertility goals, and the strength of those goals—affect fertility decisions in the U.S. Finds that many women who intend to have children are unsure they'll follow through. Findings highlight the growing role of uncertainty in shaping fertility patterns.

"Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts" (with Sarah R. Hayford). Population and Development Review 49, no. 1 (2023): 7-42.

Examines whether declining U.S. fertility rates are due to changing goals or increasing difficulty in achieving them. Finds that most people still intend to have around two children, and childlessness remains uncommon. The decline appears driven by delayed childbearing and a growing gap between intended and achieved fertility rather than shifting fertility goals.

"The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals among a US Cohort in the Post-Recession Years" Population Development and Review 48, no. 4 (2022): 991-1026.

Examines how socioeconomic and psychological factors influence women’s fertility intentions and outcomes before, during, and after the Great Recession. Finds that more advantaged women were more likely to intend to have and have children, and that mothers were more likely than childless women to have additional children post-Recession.